Are lottery numbers predictable? Can the results of football matches be forecast? Would looking at the statistics have led to serial killer Dr Harold Shipman being caught earlier?*

These are some of the questions which will be answered in a talk on “Mathematics and the Statistics of Gaming and Serial Murder” to be given by David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk, on 9th October.

It is the first in a series of Alternative 800th Michaelmas Term public lectures. The series, which includes a mix of free science and arts lectures, is aimed primarily at encouraging members of the public, particularly senior citizens, to take part in the University’s 800th anniversary celebrations.

It has been organised by the Community Affairs Team and Cambridge City Council after a public lecture on local history aimed at senior citizens drew very positive feedback earlier in the year.

Professor Spiegelhalter is one of the world’s leading statisticians and works with the Millennium Maths Project’s Hands-On Risk and Probability Show, which uses gameshow techniques to explain the importance of statistics to school children.

He says; “We would often like to know the reason why rare, unpleasant, or surprising events happen. Fortunately the mathematics of probability allows us to check whether events are due to just ‘chance’, or whether something suspicious is going on.”

The full line-up of talks is:

9th October 2-3pm
Professor David Spiegelhalter
'Mathematics and the Statistics of Gaming and Serial Murder'

23rd October 11am-12 noon
Dr Martin Ruehl
'Return to Gomorrah: British Bombs, German victims and the Politics of Memory'

20th November 11am-12 noon
Tony Kirby
'Town and Gown - 800 Years'

27th November 11am-12 noon
Professor Malcolm Longair
'800 Years of Astronomy'

Sue Long, Festivals and Outreach Officer in the Community Affairs Team, said: “The talks are designed to appeal to everyone. You don’t have to be an expert in statistics or history to appreciate them. We hope they will ensure all members of the community have a chance to share in Cambridge’s 800 anniversary celebrations.”

Each talk lasts around 45 minutes and there is an opportunity to ask questions at the end. The talks, which will be held in the Mill Lane lecture rooms, are free, but places need to be booked in advance via the Corn Exchange Box Office on 01223 357851.

*Answers: Lottery numbers aren’t predictable; the results of football matches can be forecast up to a point; and Harold Shipman could have been caught *earlier* if someone had checked the statistics.
 


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